OPEC+ Announces Minor Oil Output Hike; India’s Call for Major Relief Goes Unanswered
New Delhi: In a move largely aligned with market expectations, the OPEC+ coalition, comprising 22 oil-exporting nations including Russia, announced on Sunday a modest increase in oil production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting November. This increment mirrors the hike implemented in October.
The decision reflects the group’s ongoing concerns about oversupply in the market and a perceived slowdown in global demand. The strategy is also seen as an effort to gradually reclaim market share from rivals, notably U.S. shale producers. This forms part of a broader policy to slowly phase out the deep production cuts that were previously in place.
However, for India, which imports over 85% of its crude oil requirements, this marginal increase is akin to a drop in the ocean. Analysts suggest that for a substantial and lasting reduction in petrol and diesel prices domestically, a far more significant production hike of 1 to 1.5 million bpd would be necessary. Without such a surge in global supply, international oil prices are expected to remain around their current levels, offering little respite to Indian consumers.
The decision emerged despite differing views within the group. Reports indicated that Russia favored a conservative approach with this minor increase, likely to avoid putting additional downward pressure on prices amid its own production challenges. In contrast, Saudi Arabia, which possesses significant spare production capacity, was reportedly pushing for a much larger output hike—potentially two to four times the agreed amount—to regain market share more aggressively.
Global oil prices have retreated from their peak of $82 a barrel this year, trading below $65 for Brent crude on Friday. While prices are above the lows of $60 seen in May, most analysts project a well-supplied market for the rest of the year and into 2026, driven by tempered demand and rising output from non-OPEC+ producers like the United States.
The OPEC+ statement described the global economic outlook as “stable” and noted that market fundamentals remain healthy due to low oil inventories. The group’s production cuts had reached a peak of 5.85 million bpd in March. The current policy involves a phased withdrawal of these cuts, with this latest increase being a part of that calibrated return.
